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citation
Cite the dataset as a whole, or any country profile, using the following form. A DOI will be minted at publication.
Jamil H, Gilmour S (2026). Bayesian estimates of tobacco use prevalence in adults aged 15 and above, 2000–2040 (model OmegaTobacco EBS). Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, in collaboration with researchers at the World Health Organization. https://ibuki.io
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WPRO · JPN
Tobacco use estimates for people aged 15 and older, 2000–2040. Population aged 15+ in 2025 · 108.3M.
OmegaTobacco EBS · Data release 2026-09-12
Any tobacco · Men · 2025
23.9%
95 % CrI 21.6 – 26.4
Indicator
Sex
Year
Estimates · 2025Posterior median · 95 % CrI
Crude prevalence in Japan in 2025, ages 15 and older. Values are posterior medians with 95% credible intervals.
Any tobacco · Men · 2025
23.9%
95 % CrI 21.6% – 26.4%
Any tobacco · Women · 2025
7.3%
95 % CrI 6.0% – 8.8%
Cigarettes · Men · 2025
15.8%
95 % CrI 10.6% – 20.1%
Cigarettes · Women · 2025
5.9%
95 % CrI 3.7% – 7.6%
Current use · 2000–2040Model estimates and surveys
Crude prevalence at ages 15 and older. Lines show posterior medians and bands show 95% credible intervals. Years after 2025 are forecasts. Survey dots use their reported age ranges and are coloured by survey type.
Men · Any tobacco
Women · Any tobacco
Men · Cigarettes
Current use · Men · 2000–2040Overlapping product categories
Current use among men in Japan. Cigarettes are included in smoked tobacco, which is included in any tobacco. These categories overlap and should not be added together.
Any tobacco · Medians and 95% credible intervals
Estimated users 12,514,800 (11,310,200–13,791,300)
Age-standardized prevalence 25.2% (22.7%–27.7%)
Estimated users 4,093,920 (3,388,080–4,958,220)
Age-standardized prevalence 8.8% (7.2%–10.6%)
Current — any tobacco product · Crude prevalence, ages 15+
In 2025 is the probability that the target holds in that year. By 2025 is the probability that it held at least once from 2000 through 2025. Prevalence may subsequently rise above the threshold.
| Sex | In 2025 | By 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Men | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Women | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Both sexes | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sex | In 2025 | By 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Men | 98.8% | 98.8% |
| Women | 40.2% | 40.2% |
| Both sexes | 95.6% | 95.6% |
Probabilities for both sexes use prevalence weighted by the male and female populations. They describe the combined population, not separate attainment in each sex.
Difference between sexes · 2000–2040Any tobacco · percentage points
Men's prevalence minus women's prevalence for any tobacco in Japan, in percentage points. Positive values mean higher prevalence among men. Medians and 95% credible intervals are calculated from paired posterior draws.
Selected year · 2025Ages 15–100
Estimated prevalence in Japan in 2025, evaluated every five years of age from 15 to 100. Curves describe individual ages. Survey dots cover their reported age bands and years within five years of the selected year.
Men · Any tobacco
Women · Any tobacco
Age profiles · Men · Any tobacco2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030
Estimated any tobacco prevalence among men in Japan, by age and calendar year. The curves compare 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. These comparisons do not isolate birth-cohort effects.
Survey recordsAny tobacco · Men
Overall survey estimates for any tobacco among men, from 2000 onward. Age-specific rows are not listed here. Open an observation to see its source and whether it was used to fit the model.
No overall survey estimates are listed for this indicator and sex. Age-specific data and related indicators can still inform the model.
Citation · OmegaTobacco EBS · 2026-09-12
Methods · OmegaTobacco EBS
OmegaTobacco EBS is a Bayesian hierarchical model fitted separately by sex, with coupled tobacco products. The methods page gives the model equations, data selection rules and validation results. Read the methodology.
Women · Cigarettes